A market can stop trading before its event is settled. That gap is not a footnote. It is part of the contract.
In a three-outcome market, traders need more than a threshold and a middle band. They need to know which observation counts, when it counts, and what happens if the source is late. A Maybe outcome can help frame uncertainty. It cannot repair an unclear clock.
The practical rule is simple: define the measurement window before discussing the price. Otherwise, two traders may agree on the range and still disagree about the result.
What Yes, No and Maybe mean
Oddup’s three-outcome mechanic gives a market a Yes, No and Maybe result. The Yes and No outcomes split 90% of the pool reserve; Maybe wins 10% of the pool reserve. The exact market rules remain the authority for a particular question.
Maybe is not a tie, a void or a vague synonym for uncertainty. It is a defined outcome with its own condition. In a range-style question, that condition often means the measured result falls inside a stated band. Yes and No cover the outcomes outside it.
That design creates a useful distinction. A trader can be right that a result will be uncertain, but still wrong about whether it lands inside the band. A trader can also be right about the broad direction and wrong about the precise observation used to settle the market.
For example, a CPI question might define Maybe as a release between a lower boundary and an upper boundary. But the rule must also say which CPI series applies, which publication counts, and the time at which the result is observed. Without those details, a range is only half a rule.
Four clocks that traders should not confuse
Market pages often show a close time. That time may only tell traders when orders stop. It may not specify when the event is measured or when the result becomes final.
Separate four moments:
- Trading close: the time after which new orders are no longer accepted.
- Observation time: the instant or period whose value determines the outcome.
- Determination time: when the named source makes the relevant result available or the operator applies the rule.
- Settlement time: when positions are actually finalised and any payout is processed.
These moments can be close together, but they are not interchangeable. Kalshi’s market FAQ says the displayed close time may differ from determination time. It also says markets can wait for an official source to publish final data, depending on the market rules. See Kalshi’s market settlement guidance.
That distinction matters most when traders treat a countdown as a promise of immediate resolution. A game may end before an official statistic is final. A government release may be published at a scheduled time, while a market’s terms require a particular value or source. The event can appear finished while the contract remains unresolved.
The CFTC’s prediction-market guidance tells customers to review the contract’s payout and price terms, including how settlement determinations are made and who decides. It describes expiration as either a specific time or the natural conclusion of an event. In other words, timing belongs in the terms, not merely in a banner.
A band needs a measurement rule
For a Maybe band to work, the market must define its edges. Does the lower boundary belong to Maybe or No? Does the upper boundary belong to Maybe or Yes? If the published value is rounded, does the market use the displayed value or a more precise underlying figure?
These are not obscure technicalities. They determine who wins when a result sits on an edge. A rule that says “between the thresholds” can leave a gap if both endpoints are excluded. A rule that says “at or between” still needs to identify which threshold is included.
Use exact language. State whether the band is inclusive or exclusive at each end. Name the unit, data series and precision. If the source reports one decimal place but stores extra precision, say which representation controls.
Then make the time basis explicit. A daily average is not the same as a release-day snapshot. A market that asks whether an index crosses a level “by Friday” needs a time zone and a cutoff. A question tied to an official announcement needs to say whether a preliminary notice or a final certification counts.
Polymarket US’s documentation describes a sound structure: resolution criteria, timing, official sources and edge cases. Its examples include a market resolving on data available at 11:59 PM ET on the end date, or after official certification. Those are examples, not universal rules. The lesson is that the rule should specify when and from what source the outcome is evaluated.
What happens when the source changes or arrives late?
Some measurements are revised. Some sources publish corrections. Some events are postponed, cancelled or reported through more than one channel. The market should explain in advance how it handles those cases.
A defensible rule can identify a primary source and a fallback source. It can state whether the first published figure controls or a later revision replaces it. It can set a deadline for delayed publication and explain the outcome if no qualifying data appears. The goal is not to predict every possible problem. It is to prevent the operator from inventing a new standard after traders have taken positions.
Source hierarchy matters, too. If an official agency’s table conflicts with a later press release, which one controls? If a league corrects a statistic, does the correction reopen the result? If a data feed is unavailable, does the market wait, use a named backup, or follow a fallback settlement method?
Kalshi’s guidance points traders back to each market’s rules for its official source and determination criteria. Polymarket US likewise explains that market rules can specify backup sources and edge cases. Neither platform’s general FAQ substitutes for the terms of a specific contract. Traders should read the market-level rule, not assume one platform-wide answer covers every market.
Worked example: a CPI range market
Consider a hypothetical CPI market. It asks whether the next year-over-year CPI reading will clear an upper boundary. The contract offers Yes, No and Maybe. Maybe applies when the official reading falls inside a pre-defined band. The boundaries below are variables, not a live forecast or a current CPI level.
- Define the series. Name the CPI measure and the official table or release that supplies it. Do not leave “inflation” open to several interpretations.
- Set the observation. Identify the scheduled release and the precise time zone. Specify whether the market uses the first published reading or a stated later revision.
- Write the outcomes. No applies below the lower boundary. Maybe applies from the lower boundary through the upper boundary, inclusive. Yes applies above the upper boundary. The actual contract must state the chosen endpoint treatment.
- Separate close from settlement. Stop trading at a stated time. Then explain that determination waits for the named official release and settlement follows the determination process.
- Provide a delay rule. If the source does not publish on schedule, explain whether the market remains open, uses a named backup or follows a specified fallback.
Now imagine the release appears after the expected time. Traders may have stopped trading already. That alone does not decide the outcome. The rule does. If the market specified a publication deadline and a fallback, participants can understand the result without guessing what “late” means.
Imagine instead that the reported value lands exactly on a boundary. If the rule made that boundary inclusive, the outcome is defined. If it did not, the market has created avoidable ambiguity. A clear example in the contract can show how endpoints, rounding and revisions work before anyone trades.
This example uses no live CPI value. It demonstrates contract design, not a prediction about inflation. A worked example should clarify the rule without implying that a particular outcome is likely.
The market-design checklist
Before opening a three-outcome question, a product team can answer a short checklist:
- What exact event or value is being measured?
- Which primary source provides the settlement observation?
- What date, time and time zone define the observation window?
- When does trading stop, and is that separate from observation?
- Where do the Maybe band’s inclusive and exclusive edges sit?
- Which precision or rounding rule controls?
- How do revisions, missing data, postponements and cancellations work?
- Who determines the outcome, and what happens if the determination is challenged?
A short rule can still answer these questions. The best terms use ordinary language, define technical terms once and show one boundary case. Long terms do not automatically create clarity. Specific terms do.
For the trader, the same checklist becomes a reading habit. Before comparing a price with a personal view, locate the measurement source, cutoff and Maybe condition. If any of those are missing, uncertainty is not confined to the event. It has entered the contract itself.
Why this matters for prediction traders
A Maybe band can make a market more expressive. It can separate an in-range outcome from results above or below the range. But its usefulness depends on a clean rule for what is measured and when.
Do not read “close” as “settled”. Do not read “Maybe” as “anything could happen”. The first describes a trading state; the second should describe a precise outcome. A good market puts the band, clock, source and fallback in one place.
That discipline helps traders compare prices with the contract they are actually trading. It also makes post-event review more useful: a trader can assess the forecast separately from the quality of the question. A market with clear timing does not remove uncertainty. It shows where uncertainty ends and the rules begin.
Compliance note: This article is for information and education only. It is not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and it does not recommend any trade or predict an outcome. Prediction-market rules and availability vary by market and jurisdiction. Review the applicable terms and assess risk independently.
