How to price a Bitcoin August close market — a three-outcome walkthrough
Bitcoin sits at $64,364 on 29 July. Here's how to price a three-outcome market on the August close, using real Polymarket, Kalshi, and CoinGecko data.
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The Fed will hold on Wednesday. September is where the money is.
The FOMC meets 29 July. Prediction markets price a hold near 96%. September's hike odds moved from 12% to 82% in ten days. Here's the setup.
The stablecoin market just shrank by $14 billion. Here's what that means for August's prediction markets
Stablecoin supply fell $14B in 60 days — the first quarterly contraction since 2022. What the Maybe outcome pricing tells us about August's markets.
What Is the Maybe Outcome? Oddup's Three-Outcome Prediction Market Explained
The Maybe outcome is a third resolution state in a prediction market — it wins when the result is partial, ambiguous, or outside the binary range. Here is how it works on Oddup, including the 10% pool reserve and decision framework.
New Category: Sports — Back Your Predictions Where It Matters
Sports prediction markets are live on Oddup. Predict championships, players, transfers, and tournament outcomes with three-way Yes / No / Maybe markets.
The Oddup Graduate Program 2026: a paid 6-month cohort across four cities
Six months. Four cities. Real work, real teammates, real shipped projects. Cohort opens in San Francisco, October 2026. Apply with a build and a 90-second video.
New Category: Tech — Predict the Products, Deals, and Shifts Defining the Industry
Product launches, acquisitions, AI milestones, and platform shifts. Oddup Markets now lets you predict the future of technology.
New Category: Politics — Predict the Power Shifts That Shape the World
Elections, legislation, party leadership, and regulatory action. Oddup Markets now lets you predict political outcomes with real stakes.
New Category: Venture Capital — Predict the Firms That Shape the Future
Predict which VC will hit the Midas List, produce the most unicorns, or have the most portfolio fraud in 2026. A new category on Oddup Markets.
New Category: Startups — Predict Which Companies Will Survive
Oddup Markets now lets you predict whether startups will survive or fail. Backed by a decade of data on 300,000+ companies.
Explore the Markets: What You Can Predict on Oddup
Crypto, FX, indices, and commodities — here's what you can predict on Oddup today, and what's coming next.
Introducing Oddup Markets: Predict With Conviction
Oddup Markets is live. A prediction platform with three outcomes — Yes, No, and Maybe — across crypto, FX, indices, and commodities.
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